Securing equipment emerges as new variable for Korea's chip expansion plans

ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet stated during an earnings call that increasing production capacity by 30 percent in 2027 and another 30 percent in 2028 for advanced chipmaking equipment will likely be insufficient to satisfy customer demand. The equipment, including low-NA EUV and DUV immersion systems, is crucial for manufacturing high-performance memory chips.

This anticipated supply bottleneck could complicate Korea's ambitions to expand semiconductor production through new industrial complexes. Plans include two separate clusters in Yongin for SK hynix and Samsung Electronics, with SK hynix already under construction and Samsung scheduled to break ground later this month. Both companies also plan large-scale manufacturing sites in Jeonnam-Gwangju.

Industry officials currently do not characterize the situation as an immediate bottleneck, acknowledging ASML's expansion efforts. However, they suggest that persistent strong demand through 2028, 2029, and 2030 could lead to supply constraints. This period coincides with the planned operational timelines for new fabs, such as SK hynix's first Yongin fab targeting October next year and Samsung's first Yongin fab in 2029.

The typical lead time for equipment orders in the semiconductor industry ranges from 18 months to two years. This means current supply largely reflects orders placed around 2025. The concern is how future demand, particularly for 2029 and 2030 orders already showing strong interest, will align with ASML's capacity given these long lead times and Korea's aggressive expansion schedule.