US holiday online sales to grow 6.7% as discounts attract shoppers, Adobe Analytics forecasts

The headline growth of 6.7% for US online holiday sales masks a deeper story of consumer caution. Shoppers are more selective due to higher household costs. Retailers like Walmart and Kohl's have already voiced concerns about spending capacity. Discounts are essential to drive sales, with Cyber Monday expecting peak markdowns of 30% on electronics.

For Asian e-commerce players, especially those with cross-border operations targeting the US, this data points to a challenging environment. Companies like Alibaba's AliExpress or Temu will need aggressive discount strategies to capture market share. The test for these platforms is whether they can sustain profitability while offering deep price cuts. This also applies to logistics providers handling US-bound shipments from Asia.

The thing to watch is the actual discount levels offered by Asian retailers during their own holiday seasons. If US consumers demand 30% off, Asian consumers may expect similar. This could pressure margins for companies in markets like Southeast Asia, where price sensitivity is high. The 6.2% growth forecast for Cyber Monday sales, down from last year's 7.1%, reflects this softening demand.