Trump, Xi expected to discuss trade, AI, Taiwan: academics

The summit’s real focus is not just trade, but establishing AI risk management. This is critical given that the US and China together account for about 90 percent of global AI capabilities. Beijing remains cautious. Fudan University’s Wu Xinbo warns that Washington could use such dialogues to slow China’s AI development. This reflects a deep-seated distrust that will complicate any proposed "constructive relationship."

Taiwanese academics view AI as a primary agenda item, alongside trade and procurement. Taiwan itself is expected to play a secondary role in these discussions. Beijing will press Washington to slow arms sales to Taiwan and limit high-level exchanges. However, China knows it is unlikely to halt US arms sales altogether, which sets a clear limit on any "progress" in this area. US policy toward Taiwan remains unchanged, according to Jakob Lengacher of the US Department of State.

The thing to watch is the tariff reduction framework, expected after the summit. Negotiators are working on reciprocal cuts for about US$30 billion of non-sensitive goods from each country. If this framework is announced and implemented, it would show tangible progress beyond mere rhetoric. Failure to deliver on this specific trade commitment would undermine the summit's stated goal of managing competition.