HBM Prices to More Than Double Next Year, TrendForce Says

The anticipated 121% rise in HBM average selling prices for next year is driven by persistent supply tightness and a market shift towards higher-priced, newer-generation products like HBM4 and HBM4E. This trend indicates that despite increased production efforts from major manufacturers, demand continues to outpace supply, maintaining upward pressure on pricing.

Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are actively ramping up HBM production, particularly for HBM4. Samsung announced it would more than triple third-quarter HBM4 revenue from the previous quarter, while SK hynix stated it had lifted HBM4 yields to the level of its previous-generation HBM3E and was entering a full ramp-up. These efforts are aimed at supporting the launch of Nvidia's new AI chip, Vera Rubin.

Despite expanded supply, the HBM shortage is expected to persist. In response to rising prices, some technology giants are considering using lower-capacity, eight-layer HBM stacks instead of 12-layer products. However, TrendForce noted that this approach does not reduce the cost of the base die and could result in a 10% to 20% higher cost per gigabit for the eight-layer products, suggesting a limited impact on overall HBM price trends.