Atome Deal Could Lift Grab’s 2028 Earnings by Up to US$220 Million

Grab's US$1.49 billion acquisition of Atome is a clear bet on financial services driving future growth. Maybank Investment Bank estimates Atome could contribute US$200 million to US$220 million to Grab's 2028 EBITDA. This is a significant portion of the US$360 million in additional EBITDA Maybank attributes to acquisitions in Grab's updated outlook. The deal's valuation, at 12 times Atome's projected 2028 enterprise value to EBITDA, demands strong integration.

The test for Grab in Southeast Asia is whether it can effectively integrate Atome's lending infrastructure and merchant network. This must extend beyond direct earnings contributions. Maybank noted the guidance reflects direct earnings more than wider platform benefits. Grab needs to prove it can cross-sell Atome's services to its existing user base, making the acquisition more than a simple financial consolidation. This is the key to justifying the US$1.49 billion price tag.

The thing to watch is Grab's execution post-acquisition, especially given the deal's expected close by the third quarter of 2027. Maybank flagged execution and capital allocation risks. If Grab fails to leverage Atome's assets across its platform, the projected US$500 million financial services EBITDA by 2028 may be harder to achieve. This would undermine the valuation and the overall US$1.7 billion EBITDA target.