Orienspace sees rocket competition coming down to scale and cost

Orienspace’s September 16 launch of Gravity-1 Y3 reflects a critical shift in China’s commercial space sector. The company, founded in 2020, initially overestimated customer readiness for new rockets. It took three successful flights before Orienspace secured its first major constellation deployment for Qianfan. This shows that launch reliability, not just capacity, remains the primary hurdle for new entrants seeking large contracts.

China’s commercial rocket market is maturing beyond R&D. Orienspace’s focus on scale and cost, aiming for USD 3,000 per kilogram even without reuse, challenges state-owned providers like Long March, which charges USD 8,900 to USD 10,400 per kilogram. The company’s planned IPO in the first half of 2027 will fund its liquid-fueled Gravity-2 rocket, designed for 20+ reuses and a 21.5 metric ton payload. This capital infusion could accelerate market consolidation.

The test for Orienspace is whether its Gravity-2 liquid rocket, expected in late 2026, can deliver on its ambitious reuse and cost targets. Peng forecasts economic benefits of reusable rockets in China around 2029-2030, later than many expect. Until then, Orienspace must balance high R&D costs for Gravity-2 with Gravity-1’s commercial revenue, aiming for company-wide profitability in 2028.