AI Is Already Reshaping The Economy – But It’s Nowhere Near Done

Anthropic's report forecasts US GDP growth between 1.6% and 32% above a no-AI baseline by 2030. These are projections, not guarantees. The most disruptive scenario, 'extreme change,' predicts a 15% GDP growth rate in 2030. This would mean the US economy could double every four-and-a-half years. However, this same scenario sees cognitive occupation wages fall 11.5% below the baseline.

For Asia, this report shows the regional challenge of managing AI's impact on knowledge work. Countries like Singapore and South Korea, with high concentrations of cognitive workers, face similar wage pressures. Their governments must prioritize reskilling programs to absorb displaced workers. Without intervention, wage disparities could widen significantly, mirroring the 11.5% cognitive wage drop seen in the extreme US scenario.

The thing to watch is how quickly Asian economies adapt their education and labor policies. If new tasks are not created to offset automation, as in Anthropic's 'extreme change' scenario, unemployment in cognitive fields will rise. The test for policymakers is whether they can foster innovation that generates new jobs by 2030, avoiding the scenario where AI automates 90% of affected tasks without creating new ones.