US chip curbs have sharply restrained China's high-end AI chip production: 'Chip War' Author Chris Miller

The US chip curbs have worked. China's domestic high-end AI chip production remains tiny. Miller’s assessment confirms that denying China access to advanced chipmaking tools, specifically ASML's EUV machines, has been highly effective. This has forced Chinese AI firms to rely on external computing resources and chips, including NVIDIA chips obtained through unofficial channels.

For Asia, this means continued dominance for TSMC, which holds approximately 95 percent of global AI chip production by computing power. Chinese AI innovation must continue with less computing power. This dynamic reinforces the market position of non-Chinese chipmakers and foundries across the region. It also pushes Chinese AI firms to find workarounds, which could foster new, less hardware-intensive approaches to AI development.

The test for China is whether it can develop alternative chipmaking technologies or secure access to critical tools. If China had gained access to EUV tools seven years ago, the global landscape would be very different. The current restrictions will likely accelerate China's efforts to build a self-sufficient semiconductor industry, but this will take years and billions of dollars.