How Would China Actually Govern Taiwan?

A recent academic symposium, held at the University of Hong Kong’s Beijing Center, provided insights into Chinese scholars' vision for a “Taiwan Special Administrative Region” (SAR). Building on Xi Jinping’s 2019 speech and drawing from the post-handover experiences of Hong Kong and Macao, the participants reached a 12-point consensus. This blueprint suggests that all of Taiwan’s authority would derive from Beijing, its armed forces would be disbanded, and People’s Liberation Army troops would be stationed on the island.

The “One Country, Two Systems” principle, originally conceived with Taiwan in mind by leaders like Ye Jianying and Deng Xiaoping, would reportedly apply whether unification comes peacefully or through non-peaceful means. Under a “non-peaceful” scenario, the scholars envisioned a transitional period of “quasi-military governance” lasting three to five years. During this phase, the central government would focus on suppressing “Taiwan independence elements,” a term Beijing uses for those advocating for Taiwan's de jure independence.

This direct discussion of post-conflict governance arrangements marks a notable departure from Beijing’s official discursive approach, which consistently emphasizes “peaceful reunification.” While Chinese scholars regularly debate and publish on unification strategies, the symposium's detailed consideration of a potential military transition period stands out against the backdrop of official documents from the Chinese Communist Party.