Global notebook shipments tipped to drop 8%, MIC says
Global notebook computer shipments are projected to decline by 8 percent year-on-year to 167.9 million units in 2024, according to the Market Intelligence and Consulting Institute (MIC). This downturn is attributed to weak demand, elevated component prices, and ongoing supply constraints. Shipments are expected to fall an additional 4.7 percent in 2025 to 160 million units, with the trend extending into 2028. The MIC forecasts that replacement demand will not recover until key component supplies stabilize and costs decrease. This extended slump is partly driven by surging demand for AI servers, which is tightening the supply of critical memory chips and other high-end components.
The projected 8 percent drop in global notebook shipments this year, followed by another 4.7 percent decline in 2025, reflects a challenging period for PC makers in Asia. The Market Intelligence and Consulting Institute (MIC) points to weak demand and high component prices, with the latter exacerbated by the booming AI server market. This competition for standard DRAM and high-bandwidth memory chips, along with other high-end components, is expected to persist until 2028, impacting the cost and availability for traditional PC manufacturing. Taiwanese manufacturers, in particular, will feel the pinch as they navigate these supply chain pressures. Despite the immediate downturn, the MIC forecasts a significant shift towards AI PCs, with penetration projected to reach 76.1 percent by 2028, up from 54.1 percent this year. This suggests a future where AI capabilities are standard, not optional. The critical factor for Asian PC makers will be their ability to integrate meaningful agentic workloads locally on devices, requiring greater computing power and memory. Companies that compromise on specifications to cut costs risk losing competitiveness as AI becomes an expected user experience. While NAND flash memory shortages might ease by late 2025, the broader component crunch driven by AI server demand presents a sustained headwind for the traditional notebook market. Asian manufacturers must balance cost control with the need to deliver robust AI PC experiences to capture future market share, especially as the industry looks towards 2028 for a potential recovery in replacement demand.
Related reading
6 stories
China’s rocket boom turns Hainan into a space hub. Can launches fuel wider growth?

China’s Z.ai raises revenue target 25% after US$5 billion cash injection

Kimi creator Moonshot draws global funds seeking ‘top-tier’ Chinese AI developers: sources

People’s Daily rejects US claims of malicious AI distillation, warns of countermeasures

Databricks to Invest Over US$350 Million in Singapore, Double Its Workforce

